AI Could Displace 1 in 11 Workers, Goldman Says: What It Means

On October 22, 2026, Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs published a note estimating that up to 9% of workers in the US and other developed economies could be displaced during the AI transition, plus about 3% more affected by slower hiring, which works out to roughly one in 11 workers, according to Fortune. The twist is timing: Goldman argues the big wave of AI-related job losses probably won't come in a healthy economy but during the next downturn, when companies cut costs. For Filipinos trying to break into IT, that's a reason to get into a role and build skills now, while hiring is still happening, not a reason to panic.

I read these forecasts the way I read weather reports for a typhoon still far out at sea. Useful. Not a reason to cancel your life. Here's what the note actually says and what I'd do with it.

What did Goldman Sachs actually say about AI and jobs?

The note's headline estimate is that up to 9% of workers in developed economies could be displaced, assuming AI eventually raises productivity by 15%, per Fortune's report. Fortune also cites an earlier remark from Briggs, made on a podcast in June, that 9% equals about 15 million workers over a decade. That's a US figure, not a Philippine one.

Three other points from the same report matter more for you than the headline number:

• Timing follows the economy. Briggs wrote that "the timing and extent of automation and labor disruption will likely track the overall economic cycle," and that displacement "is more severe when the economic backdrop is less favorable."
• The current pace has cooled. Fortune notes that AI-attributed layoffs in Challenger's tracking have pulled back sharply from their spring peak.
• Routine jobs are hit first. The jobs Briggs points to are routine roles like clerks, secretaries, factory machine operators and mechanics. In his historical sample of 25 occupations hit by past technology (photo processors, proofreaders, file clerks, bank tellers and others), employment fell an average of 25% over five years after declines began. He calls those likely upper bounds for AI.

Goldman also writes that some displaced workers "may find jobs relatively quickly" while others leave the labor force, and it describes the displacement as temporary.

Does this apply to jobs in the Philippines?

Not directly, because the forecast covers the US and other developed economies, but it applies indirectly through the clients we serve. A big share of Philippine IT and BPO work exists because US, Australian and European companies send it here. When those companies decide which tasks to automate, our accounts feel it.

The local data points in the same direction, with a softer tone. ING's Asia-Pacific research head Deepali Bhargava wrote that 28.1% of Philippine workers have at least minimal generative AI exposure, second in ASEAN after Singapore, and that the evidence points to jobs being transformed rather than destroyed, as summarized by Outsource Accelerator. Labor Undersecretary Carmela Torres said something similar in September: "AI is transforming jobs rather than outright replacing them," according to another Outsource Accelerator report.

My read: the threat is real for routine, script-following work, the kind of tasks a chatbot can already do on a slow day. It's much weaker for roles where someone has to troubleshoot, test, check data or talk to a stressed client.

Why does this matter for fresh grads and career shifters?

It matters because the advice changes depending on timing, and Goldman's note is basically a timing argument. If big cuts tend to come in a recession, then the best window to get your first IT role, and a year or two of real experience, is while the economy is still hiring.

Experience is your cushion. In a downturn, the person with 18 months on a helpdesk team and a few documented projects is in a much better spot than the person still "planning to start next year." That's not a scare tactic. It's how layoffs usually work: the newest, least proven people are easiest to cut, and people with a track record find the next job faster.

It also matters which role you pick. Compare two entry-level paths:

• More exposed: pure data entry, basic chat support from a fixed script, simple document processing. Clear rules, repeatable output.
• Less exposed (for now): IT support with real troubleshooting, QA testing that hunts for edge cases, data analysis where someone checks if the numbers make sense, junior dev work reviewed by seniors.

The second group still uses AI. They just use it as a tool, and they're the ones who catch it when it's wrong. Our post on how people in IT jobs actually use AI at work goes into that habit by role.

Should you still shift to IT in 2026?

Yes, if you pick the role carefully and move with a plan. The note doesn't say tech jobs are disappearing. It says routine work is most exposed and that the timing depends on the economy. Both of those point toward getting into a role with real problem-solving in it, soon.

What I'd skip is waiting. "I'll start when the AI thing settles down" is how two years pass. If you're worried the field is already full, read our honest answer on whether IT is oversaturated in the Philippines. And if you're not sure which roles avoid heavy coding, IT jobs that don't require coding is a good place to compare.

You can work out a role and a plan alone with free resources. The part people struggle with is choosing and then sticking to it for months. In IT Career Launch's Career Shifter Track, week 1 is literally a role picker (IT support, QA, junior dev, data), and by week 4 you have a portfolio project you can show employers. The free preview lessons let you try the format first.

What to do about it this week

Don't doomscroll. Do these instead, in this order:

1. Write down your target role in one line. "Entry-level IT support, Makati or work from home, day or night shift." If you can't, start with the free IT Job Starter Kit.
2. Check five real job posts on JobStreet and LinkedIn for that role. Copy the skills that show up in at least three. That's your study list, based on what employers want today, not on forecasts.
3. Pick one skill from that list that involves judgment. Troubleshooting, writing test cases, SQL with sanity checks. Book three study sessions for it this week.
4. Start one small, documented task. A troubleshooting guide, a test case sheet, a small Sheets analysis. Note where you used AI and how you checked it.
5. Save the Fortune article and reread it in six months. Forecasts change. Your skills and your track record are what carry over.

Frequently asked questions

What did Goldman Sachs say about AI and jobs in October 2026?

In a note dated October 22, 2026, Goldman economist Joseph Briggs estimated up to 9% of workers in developed economies could be displaced during the AI transition, plus about 3% from slower hiring, roughly one in 11 workers. He argued the losses are likely to accelerate in a recession rather than in a healthy economy.

Does the Goldman forecast apply to Filipino workers?

The estimate covers the US and other developed economies, not the Philippines. It still matters here because many Philippine IT and BPO jobs serve clients in those countries, and their automation decisions affect our accounts.

Which jobs are most at risk from AI according to the note?

Routine roles like clerks, secretaries, factory machine operators and mechanics. In general, jobs built on repeatable, rule-based output are more exposed than jobs that need troubleshooting and judgment.

Is it still a good time to get into IT in the Philippines?

It can be, if you choose a role with real problem-solving and start building experience now while companies are still hiring. Check current JobStreet and LinkedIn postings for your target role to see real demand.

How can I make my IT career more resistant to AI?

Pick work where you check and fix output, not just produce it, and get comfortable using AI tools while verifying their results. A year or two of documented experience also gives you a cushion if layoffs come later.